A Lesson in WAR (Position Player)
Need a diversion while you wait for baseball to resume? We’ve got you covered with weekly deep dives into notable baseball statistics, covering how they are calculated and what they are used for, while also looking into historic seasons by Mariners players.
This week we will take a look at WAR and its application in assessing the greatness of Ken Griffey Jr.
WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is one of the most widely used modern metrics in today’s game. Its attempt at quantifying a player’s value in terms of wins, makes it one of the most all-encompassing stats in terms of showing a player’s contribution to his team in all phases of the game. For that reason, it is commonly used in looking at player’s overall performance and the value they provide in relation to other players around the league, and even in assessing contracts and trades.
Now, that’s all fine and dandy, but what even is WAR? Simply stated, WAR is a metric designed to show the amount of wins a given player contributes to his team in relation to the production of a “replacement level” player. A player with 4.5 WAR, for example, would be said to have added 4.5 additional wins to his team, in comparison to what a replacement level player would have produced.
The concept of a replacement level player is often one of the most misunderstood aspects of WAR. A “replacement level” player is designated to represent a player who would be typically available in the event that an MLB team needs a player to just fill a spot. Think of the quality of players that are called up from the minors or signed to replace an injured Major League player, hence the term “replacement player.” Replacement level players are not average MLB players. The replacement level threshold is set at a winning percentage of .294, meaning a team full of replacement level players would go 48–114 over the course of a season.
To complicated things further, WAR is calculated slightly differently between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs. Each organization has made small tweaks to their formula, so you will often find some variation between the two. For example, last season Mariners catcher Tom Murphy was worth 3.2 Fangraphs WAR and 2.7 Baseball Reference WAR. Therefore, it’s important to distinguish between the two sites when referring to WAR. This is commonly done by listing Baseball Reference WAR as bWAR and Fangraphs WAR as fWAR. For the purpose of this article, we will be exclusively using bWAR.
The equation:
The calculation of bWAR is so complicated that it really isn’t possible to calculate it on your own, but here are the basics:
WAR = Batting Runs + Baserunning Runs + Runs added or lost due to grounding into double plays in double play situations + Fielding Runs + Positional Adjustment Runs + Replacement level Runs (based on playing time).
Much different than the traditional “Runs” statistic that simply states how many times a player has scored a run, in this instance the term “runs” represents the amount of runs a player creates for his team in relation to league average. For example, Batting Runs expresses the amount of runs a player is directly responsible for with his batting ability. Fielding Runs represents the amount of runs a player is responsible for taking away from opponents with his defense, and so on.
Each of the six factors in the equation above require different calculations on their own, and explaining each of them would take far too long to outline here. So, if you want a full explanation of bWAR and what goes into each calculation you can find that by clicking the link below.
The final thing to keep in mind, is that WAR is a cumulative stat, meaning that the more playing time a player has, the more WAR they will be able to amass. For example, say a player accounts for an average of +2 batting runs above replacement level for 10 games they play. If they play 100 games, their team will have an advantage of +20 runs vs. if they played in only 50 games (+10 runs). Runs equate to Wins, so by playing 100 games, they will have tallied more WAR than if they had played only 50 games, assuming their performance remained constant throughout.
Now that we have a decent grasp on what WAR is and how it can be used, let’s take a look at an example.
And who better to represent WAR than the player who has tallied the most WAR of any player to ever wear a Mariners uniform: Ken Griffey Jr.
During his Mariners career, Junior amassed 70.6 bWAR over 13 seasons, for an average of 5.4 bWAR per year. Last year in the American League, only 11 players accounted for at least 5.0 bWAR, a feat that would have almost measured up to an average season by The Kid.
Junior led the American League in bWAR during 3 separate seasons while with the Mariners, tallying 8.8 bWAR in 1993, 9.7 in 1996 and 9.1 in 1997. He is one of only 14 position players in Major League history to tally 3 separate seasons of at least 8.5 bWAR in the American League, joined by Alex Rodriguez and Mike Trout as the only other players to accomplish the feat since 1970.
But Junior wasn’t the only Mariner consistently posting high-bWAR seasons in the 1990s. From 1990–1999, Ken Griffey Jr. posted 8 seasons of at least 5.0 bWAR and was joined by Edgar Martinez, who posted 7 such seasons of his own. Recall earlier when we mentioned that only 11 position players accounted for at least 5.0 bWAR in 2019. Edgar and Junior combined to record 15 such seasons during that 10-year span from 1990–1999, cementing their legacy as one of the most consistently excellent duos in Major League history.
Following the 1999 season, Junior left for Cincinnati. Alex Rodriguez left town the following year, heading to Texas, and suddenly the Mariners had lost two of baseball’s top players in back-to-back offseasons heading into 2001.
But we all know what happened in 2001. The result of the 2001 season is no secret to Mariners fans. After all, it’s hard to forget a season packed with an MLB record 116 wins. However, breaking the win record wasn’t the only history the Mariners made that year.
During the 2001 season, Bret Boone led the Mariners with 8.8 bWAR, followed by Ichiro (7.7), Mike Cameron (5.9), John Olerud (5.2) and Edgar Martinez (4.8). Are you impressed? You should be.
That year, the Mariners became one of only four teams in American League history to field at least 5 position players who each tallied at least 4.8 bWAR. They were bested only the 1939 New York Yankees, who fielded 6 such players, led by Joe DiMaggio (8.8 bWAR).
